Condition- and context-dependent variation of sexual dimorphism across lizard populations at different spatial scales.

The evolution of sexual dimorphism (SD) is driven by intricate interplays between sexual and natural selection. When it comes to SD variation within populations, however, environmental factors play a major role. Sexually selected traits are expected to be strongly dependent on individual body condition, which is influenced by the local environment that individuals experience. As a consequence, the degree of SD may also depend on resource availability. Here, we investigated the potential drivers of SD expression at two sexually dimorphic morphometric traits, body size (snout vent length) and head shape (head geometric morphometrics), in the Italian wall lizard (Podarcis siculus). We assessed the existence of condition- and context-dependent SD across ten islands of the Aeolian archipelago (southern Italy), at within- and among-population scales. We observed strong geographical variation of SD among islands, and tested three potential SD predictors related to resource availability (individual body condition, ecosystem productivity, temperature). Body condition and ecosystem productivity were the main drivers of body size SD variation, and body condition was also the main driver for head shape SD. Our results highlight that the expression of SD in the Italian wall lizard is both condition- and context-dependent. These results are congruent at within- and among-populations scales highlighting that spatial multi-scale analysis represents a useful approach to understand patterns of SD expression.

Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis.

Deserts have been predicted to be one of the most responsive ecosystems to global climate change. In this study, we examine the spatial and demographic response of a keystone endemic plant of the Namib Desert (Welwitschia mirabilis), for which displacement and reduction of suitable climate has been foreseen under future conditions. The main aim is to assess the association between ongoing climate change and geographical patterns of welwitschia health, reproductive status, and size. We collected data on welwitschia distribution, health condition, reproductive status, and plant size in northern Namibia. We used ecological niche models to predict the expected geographic shift of suitability under climate change scenarios. For each variable, we compared our field measurements with the expected ongoing change in climate suitability. Finally, we tested the presence of simple geographical gradients in the observed patterns. The historically realized thermal niche of welwitschia will be almost completely unavailable in the next 30 years in northern Namibia. Expected reductions of climatic suitability in our study sites were strongly associated with indicators of negative population conditions, namely lower plant health, reduced recruitment and increased adult mortality. Population condition does not follow simple latitudinal or altitudinal gradients. The observed pattern of population traits is consistent with climate change trends and projections. This makes welwitschia a suitable bioindicator (i.e. a 'sentinel') for climate change effect in the Namib Desert ecosystems. Our spatially explicit approach, combining suitability modeling with geographic combinations of population conditions measured in the field, could be extensively adopted to identify sentinel species, and detect population responses to climate change in other regions and ecosystems.

Do atmospheric CO2 concentration increase, climate and forest management affect iWUE of common beech? Evidences from carbon isotope analyses in tree rings.

Beech is one of the most important forest tree species in Europe, hence possible adverse factors affecting its physiology and productivity can have strong ecological and economic impacts. In this context, four beech forests along a latitudinal gradient from southern Apennines to middle European lowlands were selected for chronological determinations of carbon isotope composition (δ13C) in tree-ring cellulose. The main objectives of this study were to assess (i) the effect of climate on the carbon signature of tree-ring cellulose (δ13C); (ii) the physiological response to recent CO2 concentration increment and to climatic variation; and (iii) the relationship between intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE, here the average long-term ratio of net photosynthesis to stomatal conductance) and growth of trees in different sites since 1950. Our results demonstrated that site climatic conditions peculiarly affect δ13C. In northern sites, a climatic control of summer precipitation and temperature on stomatal conductance was demonstrated by their opposite correlations with δ13C, negative and positive, respectively. Furthermore, an 'earliness effect' was suggested by a significant relationship between spring temperature and δ13C in the coldest sites and by a positive one between winter temperature and δ13C in the warmest ones. In all the study sites, during the maturity phase, a positive correlation between the increment of CO2 and iWUE was observed, due to an active response of trees to CO2 increment. This increment of CO2 was the main driver of the long term increasing trend of iWUE, resulting by an active response of trees to CO2 fertilization. Moreover, precipitation mostly influences positively and negatively the inter-annual variations of iWUE of the southernmost and northernmost sites, respectively. Overall, we observed a mean increment of 40% of iWUE. Moreover, the sensitivity of iWUE to the increase of CO2 was different between the northernmost and southernmost sites. Increasing iWUE was correlated to growth in the two sites during the release phase and we hypothesize a positive effect of silvicultural treatments.

Which climate change path are we following? Bad news from Scots pine.

Current expectations on future climate derive from coordinated experiments, which compile many climate models for sampling the entire uncertainty related to emission scenarios, initial conditions, and modelling process. Quantifying this uncertainty is important for taking decisions that are robust under a wide range of possible future conditions. Nevertheless, if uncertainty is too large, it can prevent from planning specific and effective measures. For this reason, reducing the spectrum of the possible scenarios to a small number of one or a few models that actually represent the climate pathway influencing natural ecosystems would substantially increase our planning capacity. Here we adopt a multidisciplinary approach based on the comparison of observed and expected spatial patterns of response to climate change in order to identify which specific models, among those included in the CMIP5, catch the real climate variation driving the response of natural ecosystems. We used dendrochronological analyses for determining the geographic pattern of recent growth trends for three European species of trees. At the same time, we modelled the climatic niche for the same species and forecasted the suitability variation expected across Europe under each different GCM. Finally, we estimated how well each GCM explains the real response of ecosystems, by comparing the expected variation with the observed growth trends. Doing this, we identified four climatic models that are coherent with the observed trends. These models are close to the highest range limit of the climatic variations expected by the ensemble of the CMIP5 models, suggesting that current predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems could be underestimated.

From continental priorities to local conservation: a multi-level analysis for African tortoises.

Terrestrial tortoises are the most endangered group of vertebrates but they are still largely ignored for defining global conservation priorities. In this paper, we explored within a hierarchical framework the potential contribution of prioritization studies at the continental scale to the planning of local initiatives for the conservation of African tortoises at the regional level. First, we modeled the distribution of all the African tortoise species, we calculated three indicators of conservation priority (i.e., species richness, conservation value, and complementarity), and we carried out a gap analysis at continental scale. Second, we focused on the most important region for tortoise conservation and performed the same analyses at higher resolution. Finally, we compared the results from the two scales for understanding the degree to which they are complementary. Southern Africa emerged from the continental analysis as the most important region for tortoises. Within this area, the high-resolution analysis pointed out specific core sites for conservation. The relative degree of species protection was assessed similarly at the two different resolutions. Two species appeared particularly vulnerable at both scales. Priority indices calculated at high resolution were correlated to the values calculated for the corresponding cells at low resolution but the congruence was stronger for species richness. Our results suggest to integrate the calculation of conservation value and complementarity into a hierarchical framework driven by species richness. The advantages of large scale planning include its broad perspective on complementarity and the capability to identify regions with greatest conservation potential. In this light, continental analyses allow targeting fine scale studies toward regions with maximum priority. The regional analyses at fine scale allow planning conservation measure at a resolution similar to that required for the practical implementation, reducing the uncertainty associated with low resolution studies.

Mitochondrial phylogeography of the Bedriaga's rock lizard, Archaeolacerta bedriagae (Reptilia: Lacertidae) endemic to Corsica and Sardinia.

Archaeolacerta bedriagae is a rock-dwelling lizard endemic to the Corso-Sardinian insular system. We investigated the phylogeography of the species by using the mitochondrial ND4 and flanking tRNAs genes from 94 specimens belonging to 19 populations. Phylogenetic, Barrier, and SAMOVA analyses revealed a highly structured pattern characterized by two levels of discontinuities in the geographical distribution of mtDNA diversity: (i) a deep phylogeographic break in Northern Corsica between Lineage A, restricted to northernmost Corsica, and Lineage B widespread all over the remaining range of the species, and (ii) some minor phylogeographic discontinuities within lineage B, which is sub-structured into six closely related haplotype clades with remarkable concordance with geography. The first evolutionary event concerning the split between the two main lineages from an ancestral population occurred in the Upper Pliocene (5.87-3.68 mya), while the divergence within lineage B would have started from the Upper Pleistocene (2.5-1.6 mya), between Corsican and Sardinian populations. Somewhat later (1.7-1.1 mya), the Sardinian ancestral population underwent fragmentation into population groups inhabiting North, Central, and South Sardinia. As inferred from previous allozyme surveys, the divergence among population groups would be driven by allopatric fragmentation, while the discrepancy concerning the major partition into two lineages inferred from mtDNA but not apparent in analysis of allozymes needs further investigation.